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Can Greece still stay in the Euro?

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at German financial services firm Allianz, believes that...
Newstalk
Newstalk

09.45 29 Jun 2015


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Can Greece still stay in the E...

Can Greece still stay in the Euro?

Newstalk
Newstalk

09.45 29 Jun 2015


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Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at German financial services firm Allianz, believes that there is only a 15 percent chance of Greece staying in the euro.

Speaking to Bloomberg he said: "What we are seeing here is what economists call the sudden stop, when the payment system stops. The logic of a sudden stop is a massive economic contraction, social unrest and it’s going to make continued membership of the euro zone very difficult for Greece."

Meanwhile The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised its forecast to a 60 percent probability of a Greek exit.

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A yes vote could pave the way for a temporary resolution to the current debt crisis - but with the government campaigning against it the passing of the referendum would raise questions about the future of Syriza's time in office. 

“If a ‘yes’, who are we trusting, who are we working with to then implement that programme?” asked Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the Euro Group.

The fact that the current deal is due to runout tomorrow further complicates matters - a new programme would need to be agreed between Greece and creditor institutions and it will also have to be passed by all eurozone countries.

This would include a potentially difficult vote in the German Bundestag.

10 points 

The European Commission has put forward a 10-point plan outlining the bailout which is currently being offered to Greece, as it tries to convince the country to vote yes in Sunday's referendum.

This list reflects the state of negotiations as of the evening of June 26 when negotiations between Greece and its creditors broke down.

Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker took to Twitter as the list was released, he says that it is being published "in the interest of transparency and for the information of the Greek people."

The commission says that this plan was not finalised, and it has not been but to the eurozone's finance ministers because of "the unilateral decision of the Greek authorities to abandon the process."

The document outlines reforms across a wide range of policies, including pensions, VAT, measures to deal with tax avoidance and fiscal recommendations.

Greeks are being asked to say yes or no to the proposals which have been put forward by European institutions, but 6 days ahead of the July 5th vote key-documents are yet to be translated into Greek.

While the Greek government is supporting a no vote, centre parties will support either a yes vote or abstention - hoping that a low turnout could make the vote void.

 

 


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